Hope for Kashmir....

64 years, and a lot has been spoke on Kashmir.It "ownership" has been debated with passionate arguments by the suitors. Each views his right paramount with a parallaxed perception. There is a legal angle and a religious angle and another nationalistic angle,none of which represent the broad spectrum truth. At the end it is geopolitics coated in a sugar candy.

I will not get into a debate that whom does Kashmir belongs to. i have a blunt answer to this question , that we owe it to our future generations. i would like to draw focus on the stark realities which underline the egos.

Pakistan is justified for calculating water scarcity threat if Kashmir is lost. India can not jeopardize its existence by letting Pakistan established land bridge with China. Torn between the geopolitical sparring of the step brothers, Kashmir demand of self determination assumes weight. What emerges pronounced by this debate is underlying Trust Deficit.

Time has come for Kashmir to take a new turn.  To prepare the ground of reconciliation of long lost brothers. Kashmir is the common heritage of South Asian landmass. It is the fountainhead of our culture and existence.I am a firm believer that it is Kashmir that will lead the path of Indo- Pak rapprochement. 

It has to began with an act of faith.A common water sharing mechanism in which Indian Investment, Pakistani Support and Kashmiri potential is harnessed into a success story. Pakistan gets water, India gets water and Kashmir gets revenue.This will naturally result in dissolution of the LoC ( line of Conflict). A joint Disaster Management and Environment Preservation Authority could also be formulate.

Once the ice has been broken next natural step will be reintegration of Integrated Kashmir Assembly, with representation from Gilgit Baltistan, Laddakh,Kashmir and Jammu. Initially this could be over and above the existing system ,and could look after neutral subjects such as culture, education and Medical system.The scope of this assembly can be enlarged later.

This in place will serve as strong foundation for the growth of integrated South Asia. 

The end state is an integrated South Asia, with common defense and economy.

i am a belver it will happen before 2047. Keep your fingers crossed. 

a leap of faith.....

two incidents which happened this week, if taken in right perspective, have the potential to alter the course of history. Firstly it was the vote for the Asia-Pacific non permanent seat in Un Security council , where India voted for Pakistan. The second was the safe return of an Indian Army helicopter which strayed into Gilgit- Baltistan.

The UN vote is hardly talked about in the Indian media. Whereas the novice Indian media has made an all effort to malign Pakistani intent in the helicopter episode. Whatever the argument they may put in , the bottom line is that it was a goodwill gesture, that should not go in vain.

The government of India should reciprocate by immediate release of Dr Khalil Chisty who is undergoing life imprisonment in Ajmer central jail. The time has come to take each opportunity into a positive stride.

The issue of Indian Locomotives for providing traction to ailing Pakistan Railways should gain momentum. Few locomotives should be offered to Pakistan on Gratis basis, without any preconditions. As a complementary act of faith Pakistan should grant permission to move Indian Cargo by Rail to Quetta/Peshawar for further shipment to Afghanistan. this arrangement will surely generate some much required revenue for Pakistan Railways.

The issue of Granting Most Favored Nation status to India by Pakistan should meet a logical conclusion now. If the intent is right the friction is not so much that it can not be overcome. All it needs is a push in the right direction.

It may be far fetched , but a Gentlemen's Commitment by India to the Pakistan, that India will not exploit the precarious defense balance of Pakistan by launching a surprise attack, will take the issue miles ahead. With the eastern border secure Pakistan can focus on west to reign the AQ- TTP onslaught. But then Pakistan have to insure by concrete action that events like 26/11 are not repeated. the closure of the terrorist camps is a natural expectation.

But then,some day one has to take a leap of faith.....

OPERATION GERONIMO : SOME UNANSWERED QUESTIONS

It has not been long since OBL died., but his ghost has returned to haunt the slippery alleys of Islamabad. The surgical strike by DEVGRU team has left many questions unanswered , for which answers will never be found. Then there are certain ones, which do not require a degree in rocket science to find an answer.

The RAID was conducted by inserting the DEVGRU team vectored on " modified Black Hawk helicopters, and two Chinooks as backups." The DEVGRU SEALs operated in two teams of 12 each. According to The New York Times, a total of "79 commandos and a were involved in the raid." "The helicopters were supported by multiple other aircraft, including fixed-wing fighter jets and drones." ( Quotes from Wikipedia).

These teams launched from Jalalabad, Afghanistan, and crossed a distance of 160 miles undetected, to reach Kakul. The operation lasted for 40 min, for which duration the choppers were hovering. Pakistan claims that its air defence RADARS were jammed during this period.

Now the following questions arise :-

1. The distance between Jalalabad and Kakul is roughly 144 nautical miles as the crow flies. Taking in account of the circuitous route ad nap of earth flying it is safe to assume a distance of 160 nautical miles. The max speed of Black Hawk is 150 nm per hour. Taking 80% of this speed it will roughly take 80-90 min one way. Add 40 min of hovering the time works out to 200 min ( 3 Hours, 20 Min). The endurance of a Black Hawk is 2 hours 30 mins. Without refuelling the operation was impossible. Although the helicopter is capable of air to air refuelling, but it is an extremely difficult operation at night. And Air to Air refuelling can not happen at nap of earth. You have to rise to a respectable altitude to be able to be picked up by a RADAR. Considering the helicopter was stealth but a re-fueler aircraft is unlikely to be.
So where was the air crafts refuelled? Land or Air this can not happen without Pakistanis Air Defence taking a notice of it.

2. Pakistanis claim that their RADARS were jammed.Even if you are jammed you know that the spectrum has been jammed and something is going wrong. What steps did Pakistan took to identify the threat.

3. 2 Black Hawks , 2 Chinook and 2 Re fullers. Re fullers can not fly Nap of Earth. There was multi layer escort cover. It is unlikely that Pakistanis did not pick up this move.

4. The story of helicopter crashing does not sounds credible. There was much more to it.

5. Residents of the area said, "We saw four helicopters at around 2 am. We were told to switch off lights of our homes and stay inside." Local residents in the vicinity of the compound reported that telephone and electrical service in the area went out around the time the raid began and was restored immediately after the Americans departed the area. Can this happen without Pakistani support.Well probability is less though technologically US seems capable to do so.

6. According to ABC News, Pakistani fighter jets were scrambled in an attempt to locate and identify what turned out to be the U.S. helicopters used in the raid.^[65] Pakistan's foreign secretary Salman Bashir confirmed that Pakistani military had scrambled F 16as they became aware of the attack but that they reached the compound after American helicopters had left. For a country living under phobia of Pro Active Operations by their assumed prime adversary India, this sounds loosely fictitious.

One could do nothing elses but agree with CIA Director Leon E. Panetta when he said " Either Pakistanis were involved or they were incapable." Now,it is for Pakistan to choose.