Thursday, May 5, 2011

OPERATION GERONIMO : SOME UNANSWERED QUESTIONS

It has not been long since OBL died., but his ghost has returned to haunt the slippery alleys of Islamabad. The surgical strike by DEVGRU team has left many questions unanswered , for which answers will never be found. Then there are certain ones, which do not require a degree in rocket science to find an answer.

The RAID was conducted by inserting the DEVGRU team vectored on " modified Black Hawk helicopters, and two Chinooks as backups." The DEVGRU SEALs operated in two teams of 12 each. According to The New York Times, a total of "79 commandos and a were involved in the raid." "The helicopters were supported by multiple other aircraft, including fixed-wing fighter jets and drones." ( Quotes from Wikipedia).

These teams launched from Jalalabad, Afghanistan, and crossed a distance of 160 miles undetected, to reach Kakul. The operation lasted for 40 min, for which duration the choppers were hovering. Pakistan claims that its air defence RADARS were jammed during this period.

Now the following questions arise :-

1. The distance between Jalalabad and Kakul is roughly 144 nautical miles as the crow flies. Taking in account of the circuitous route ad nap of earth flying it is safe to assume a distance of 160 nautical miles. The max speed of Black Hawk is 150 nm per hour. Taking 80% of this speed it will roughly take 80-90 min one way. Add 40 min of hovering the time works out to 200 min ( 3 Hours, 20 Min). The endurance of a Black Hawk is 2 hours 30 mins. Without refuelling the operation was impossible. Although the helicopter is capable of air to air refuelling, but it is an extremely difficult operation at night. And Air to Air refuelling can not happen at nap of earth. You have to rise to a respectable altitude to be able to be picked up by a RADAR. Considering the helicopter was stealth but a re-fueler aircraft is unlikely to be.
So where was the air crafts refuelled? Land or Air this can not happen without Pakistanis Air Defence taking a notice of it.

2. Pakistanis claim that their RADARS were jammed.Even if you are jammed you know that the spectrum has been jammed and something is going wrong. What steps did Pakistan took to identify the threat.

3. 2 Black Hawks , 2 Chinook and 2 Re fullers. Re fullers can not fly Nap of Earth. There was multi layer escort cover. It is unlikely that Pakistanis did not pick up this move.

4. The story of helicopter crashing does not sounds credible. There was much more to it.

5. Residents of the area said, "We saw four helicopters at around 2 am. We were told to switch off lights of our homes and stay inside." Local residents in the vicinity of the compound reported that telephone and electrical service in the area went out around the time the raid began and was restored immediately after the Americans departed the area. Can this happen without Pakistani support.Well probability is less though technologically US seems capable to do so.

6. According to ABC News, Pakistani fighter jets were scrambled in an attempt to locate and identify what turned out to be the U.S. helicopters used in the raid.[65] Pakistan's foreign secretary Salman Bashir confirmed that Pakistani military had scrambled F 16as they became aware of the attack but that they reached the compound after American helicopters had left. For a country living under phobia of Pro Active Operations by their assumed prime adversary India, this sounds loosely fictitious.

One could do nothing elses but agree with CIA Director Leon E. Panetta when he said " Either Pakistanis were involved or they were incapable." Now,it is for Pakistan to choose.