Is the killing of ten foreign tourists in the remote region of Gilgit Baltistan of Pakistan is a harbinger of proceeding violence ? The answer to this question may be illusive but the script of the same is very much being written on the wall. TTP has claimed the responsibility of the incident in which five Ukrainians, three Chinese, one Russian and one American national has been killed. TTP spokesman Eshanullah Ehsan has accredited a newly raised group Janood-e- Hafsa ( Soldiers of Lioness) with these killing which were executed to draw the world attention towards the US drone strikes in general and revenge the killing of TTP amir Wali-ul-Rehman in particular. But the claim defies common logic as only one person (though several reports negate this) was an American.
The operation was well planned and executed. Dressed in outfits of Gilgit Baltistan scouts, a paramilitary force, the killers tracked the foreign tourists for three days before killing them in cold blood. Then the execcutors esacped without being intercepted. What is of importance here is that the troops of Gilgit Baltistan scouts are mostly of indigenous Balti origin identifiable by their distinct physical feature. The possibility of Pathans of which mostly TTP is made up off masquerading as Gilgit Baltistan Scouts personel is remote. However ETIM terrorists, an ally of Taliban, can easily move around disguised as Gilgit Baltistan Scouts personals. The killing of three Chinese nationals is an additional indicator of this possibility.
The place where the incident took place is located in the Daimer district of Gilgit Baltistan, which is primarily a Sunni dominated district in Shia dominated Gilgit Baltistan. This demographic inversion has been achived slowly and steadily by migration of population from neighbouring Kohistan district of KPK starting from the Zia-ul-Haq era. This has resulted in fundamentalisation of the otherwise peaceful area providing an ideal breeding ground for potential terrorists and sympathisers. Kohistan, itself a ethnic flashpoint has been notorious for anti Shia violence over the years. It has been a Taliban/ TTP strong hold and no military operation of significance has been carried out here. There is also a possibility of TTP spill over and relocation of TTP/ Taliban camps in this region after the much publicised success of operation Rah- e -Rast of Pakistan Army in neighbouring Malakand division. The remoteness of this region makes it a surveillance blind spot and it is a safe distance away from reach of US drones. The area is also devoid of active deployment of Pakistan Army.
The timing of the incident also assumes importance as the incident coincided with Pakistan Army's declaration of clearance of Tirah Valley in Khyber region. It may be a signal by TTP to Pakistan Army that the fight is far from over and it retains initiative in this dynamic battlefield. It may also be a measure to surge the sagging morale of TTP cadres taking a beating by Pakistan Army offensive in Khyber- Kurram region.The presence of inimical elements in this strategically sensitive zone will compel Pakistan Army to employ its outstretched resources. This may give TTP the much needed respite in the central FATA region. Moreover, with Nawaz Sharif government desirous of peace, TTP is bound to make an endeavour to pocket few barging chips.The incident took place in close proximity of the proposed Dimer - Basha Dam. Also, the proposed Karachi- Kasgher rail link crosses the area. With such high economic stakes the control of this area by TTP will yield it considerable politico- economic leverage.
If unchecked,there is a likelihood of increase in violence levels in Gilgit- Baltistan and Kohistan will have a catastrophic effect on the security dynamics of Gilgit- Baltistan region. It will not only draw Pakistan Army to this region but the Chinese, compelled by their economic interests and security of Chinese nationals located in this region, are also likely to be drawn in. The third regional player India will also have to take preventive measure to thwart the spill over into the Kashmir region. Circumstances, subjected to the followup events of US drawdown from Afghanistan, will force the three nations to conjoin their efforts to check the destructive juggernaut of terrorism.
Will is be wise to reach the bridge before one thinks of crossing over?
