Neo Non Alignment... The IOR Neutrality Block

India provides the same strategic dividend to "free world" in this neo not so cold war which Pakistan provided in the cold war. 

Other than the Geographic continuity and being a strategic competition to China, India also provides the largest market outside China both for Chinses as well as US products. It also provides the service backbone to the US IT industry.

India in Chinese camp is a nightmare US can not afford. It means not only removing the Malaca Vulnerability but adding an ally who can ensure integrity of Chinese intrest in IOR freeing Chinese resources to counter US in Pacific. This is the reason perhaps why China is trying so hard to effect a regime change in India through electoral disruption. 

India firmly in US camp is a scenario China would like to avoid at all cost. It divides not only it's attention and resources but closes a potential market for perpatutiy. 

Both extream conditions make India vulnerable to direct action by either of the global players drawing it further into a strategic trap.

India needs to negate threat by reinvoking non alignment and creating a neutral pole. This should be equally accessible to US and China within limits of co operation and sovergnity. It could perhaps be the bridge between the US and PRC.

It begins with cooperation with China sans resolution of boundry dispute ( a precondition) and thereafter assurance of neutrality. The end of conflict with Pakistan is also a by product of the same. CPEC becomes CIPEC with portion of belt and road becoming an equatiy participation between India and China. 

The IT sector should remain independent of Chinese direct influence and continue to support the US. Indian manufacturing sector should also develop to suit global intrest rather than any pivot powers. 

India should secure IOR as a exclusive zone as net security provider with equal rights of safe passage for Pivot Powers. It should develop Exclusive Strategic Zones (Like EEZ) on Djibouti modle to provide OTR to Extra regional forces and thus execute logistic control.   It should enhance it's LRMP capability and execute control over both Suez, Babar Mandal, Malaca ,Sunda by means of investment and assymetric capacity. At the same time it should display tranparent neutrality for the same. 

It should develop this on Switzerland concept as a neutral no agression zone where no agressive design of any pivot power will be acceptable. In event of hostality between then India should be in a position to keep the SLOC open neutral to all.

This will surely fulfill the aspiration of Indian State, not as a pivot power but a leverage power, which is key to the global balance of power and influence. It creates a viable opposition to the Sino US conflict and creates a geopolitical alternative for the world order who does not want to get into this zero sum game.

The War Nation Wants

“Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting"

Sun Tzi

Well the nation wants a war against pakistan . The emotions run high and pumps adrenalin into the veins of the common people who are baying for pakistani blood . They want the goverment to declare a war . But , then this war has to be fought against whom ...

Pakistan , is not a nation . It is an ideology . Can one apply military superiority and defeat a mind. The answer is a big NO .

Indophobia is a staple that the pakistani establishment feeds the people of pakistan to ensure it's existacne .the mere thought of  Indian tanks rolling into the streets of lahore makes the common madrasa educated pakistani so insecure , that "he will eat grass but ensure the nation makes an atom bomb." A common pakistani is a much defeated man , with no visible horizons of economic opportunity . The still prevalent feudal system has kept the nation's wealth concentrated into coffers of ten families . These ten families drive the policy of pakistan and are subjected to political blackmail by pakistani army .

It is a common misnomer that pak army had a nation . The reality is that Pak army is the nation everything else is incidetal. It is the militant arm of the ideology called pakistan . Its primary purpous is to keep itself intact by selling a phobia of annenhilation to the insignificant common people which drive the GDP of the nation . This fear is further compounded by a distorted interpretation of islam which glorifies myrtydom  and exploits the ambiguous concept of Jihad aligned to its policies.

So whom will the war pinch . The rich will make more money by brokerage of armaments and dividends of post war reconstruction. A mauled Pak army will emerge winner by their dextrous policy of Notion of Victory of limiting Kafir India form destruction of pakistan . The war infact will act as an insurance policy for pakistan army which will utilise the shahadats to further manipulate the populace into an anti India thought . In fact the post war pakistan will be a much more dangerous place than what it is now .

So is it the end of the road for the indian establishment. The answer is again a big NO.
Pakistani misadventures can be checked by tweaking the policies en vogue.

The first and foremost requirement is to develop a credeble conventional deternce in terms of armed forces .  India must have the empirical 1:3 advantage against pak in terms of men , equipment and war reserves .

The policy of short swift war under nuclear overhang must be revised to the battle of Armageddon wherein it must be impressed on pak that the next war will be fought till the end of pakistan with utter disregard to its nuclear dead lines . The indain second strike capability must be well publicised and displayed to call pakistani nuclear bluff. Infact an 1:2 Superiority in terms of yield must always be maintained and exhibited.

The lower spectrum conflicts must be addressed in the same coin with tactical initiatives and covert strikes . Capability must be developed to neutralise designated terrorts within pakistan with surgical deniable strike at will.

Common people of pakistan must be engaged  with velvet gloves . Their intelligent courted and middle class encouraged to create a space for a positive political atmosphere . The boggy  of India being anti pakistan must be called off and the Indain establishmet must mince no words that the fight is against anti India police's of pakistan , not people of pakistan .

the nation must review it's approach with china and engage the Asian giant in a more constructive manner. It must empress upon Beijing that there is much more to gain from Delhi then Islamabad.

India must ask for observer status in OIC ,to neutralise the Islamic card of Pakistan . We must be proud to be the only nation where all streams of Islam flourish without prejudice .

Threats , coercion , intimidation to Pakistan will not incur any benifit. The time is now ripe to take on the Ideoligy and Phobias which make pakistan tha bad boy of global geopolitics .

Why Peshawar

The attack on the school run by Pak Army is neither a watershed event nor a culmination point in the long turbulent narrative of the nation which was born as a ransom against the coercive threat issued by Muslim league. The direct action plan of 1946 is still having an equal and opposite reaction. The Radcliff wrath (or award as many may call it) was an embodiment of political bully which set a precedence of violent blackmail in the subcontinent.

Jinnah and league wanted a homeland for Muslims of Indian subcontinent. Muslims! Was there any in British India at that moment of time?  There were proud Pathans; mauled Mughals; paranoid Punjabis; skeptical Sindhis; burdened Bengalis; belligerent Baloch spatially scattered in geographic continuum of the subcontinent. To add more to this there were elite Ashrafs who wanted Pakistan as insurance for their feudal privileges and they casted a charm of “ khudi”  to intoxicate the majority Alafs as means to their ends.  

Jinnah got his Pakistan which was stitched together with intrigue, stratagem, force and the illusion of the two nation theory. At the outset, the Faqir of Ipi challenged the fabric of this theory and the Babbra slaughter shred it apart. (The Babrra massacre occurred on 12th of August, 1948 in the Charsadda District of the North-West Frontier Province (now Khyber Pukhtunkhwa) of Pakistan, when unarmed workers of the Khudai Khidmatgar movement were fired upon by the provincial government on the orders of the then Chief Minister Khan Abdul Qayyum Khan.It is claimed that around 400 people were killed in the massacre and many injured). The tide which ebbed with Ayub Khans takeover of the nation, surged again with Julfiqar ali Bhutto’s convulsive reaction to the loss of East Pakistan.  

The extensions of cold war across Durand line acted as “red bull” for political Islam. It not only exposed the moderate Barelvi – Sufi Islam of subcontinent to fundamentalist Whabi- Salafi influence but also made Pak Army vulnerable to the religious subversion. At least on paper it was transformed by Zia from a nationalist army to a kaumi lashkar on “Jihad- fi- Sabillah.”The honeymoon got over with the rude aftershock of 9/11. Friends became foes and foxes devoured the carrions. The epicenter of this upheaval was Peshawar.

US military actions in Afghanistan fizzled due to porous borders and Pak subterfuge. Safe heavens mushroomed across the Durand lines, some by connivance and some by carelessness of Pakistani establishment. In any way the Pakistani writ diluted as it percolated to the frontier region where the border guarding Frontier Corps had adapted a ‘let live,’ posture. The Mujhids (read Taliban) feint compliance as long as their rear was secured. Between 2001 and 2006 several skirmishes took place between foreign fighters of Taliban and Pak Army as Musharraf decided to side with Uncle Sam which his friends in Taliban construed as betrayal.  Then the momentum changed with an air strike on a Madrassa at Chenagai in Bajur Agency on 30 Oct 2006 followed by the siege of Lal Masjid.  The collateral damage was massive led the once brother in arms on a direct collusion course.   During subsequent years, several operations to include Rah – e - Hq, Rah- e- Rast, Rah- e- Nijat, Op Zalzala, Al- Mizan, Sufed Koh, Brekhnar, Rah-e- Shadat were launched to contain the plague without any firm results. The balance of power kept on shifting between the belligerents. These operations have always been costly in terms of human misery, be it in terms of internal displacement or in terms of collateral loss of life and property. The agony, the pathos, the losses are feeding the fire continuously.

TTP is the Bad Taliban, which fought a ‘reactionary war in self defense’ with Pakistan Army, while the Haqqanis are the Good Taliban which is Pak establishment’s strategic hedge against US. Then there are seemingly insignificant players such as Jundallah who keep nibbling the spoils in between.

This is a Just War to control the combined economy of Southern Distribution Network of NATO worth US$ 1.2 billion, drug trade worth US $ 1 billion and Afghan Transit trade worth US $ 5 Billion as major heads. (Total: US $ 7.2 Billion per annum). Well such are the stakes and Peshawar is the centre of gravity. Who controls Peshawar gets the lion’s share of this loot.

There is a continuous conflict in Jinnah Paradise. The pious Muslims of the subcontinent, who believed in the vision of Jinnah and Iqbal are flabbergasted. There are no Muslims in the Muslim homeland of south west Asia. There are Shias, the Salfi- Hanifi- Whabi Shias and the Dobandi Shia who constantly bicker sometimes violently that they represent the true form of Islam, and then there are Barelivi Shias, who as per their Wahabi and Deobandi brothers have been corrupted by Sufism and idolatry. There are Sunnis, who are looked down upon by the Shias as outcasts. There are Noorbash Quazibakh, Hazaras, Bohras who are misguided believers of the book. And at last there are Ahmedias who as per state of Pakistan are not Muslims but Kafirs. This is Pakistan of today, in conflict with its existence, in disagreement with its history and in disregard with its future.

There is constant violence, mayhem, bloodshed all in name of Allah often approved by the society which lacks discretion of faith and courage of conviction. Society, who is constantly building dogmatic walls all around itself and cursing the resulting darkness, blissfully ignoring the impending doom.

The people of Pakistan have been cheated by those who sold them the dream of pious homeland. The nation has been misguided by an intoxicating mix of Indophobia and religion. As the nation develops tolerance to a threshold, the dose is increased. The side effects of this therapy have become profound in present context. Several malignant growths have occurred in Pakistan and by each passing day it is becoming difficult to control the cancer.

Peshawar is just a symptom of the fact that the cancer has started devouring the body. The shortest cure of a calculated dosed of chemotherapy will have paroxysmal side effects.

Actually Pakistan state has run out of options; unless, a revolution occurs in Pakistan. A revolution which is similar to that in Turkey under Attaturk Mustafa Kamal, which eradicates the religious anomalies and guides Pakistan on a path of faith.  

Order emerges from chaos; at least we can hope so. 

KILLING OF TOURISTS IN GILGIT BALTISTAN

Is the  killing of ten foreign tourists in the remote region of Gilgit Baltistan of Pakistan is a harbinger of proceeding violence ? The answer to this question may be illusive but the script of the same is very much being written on the wall. TTP has claimed the responsibility of the incident in which five Ukrainians, three Chinese, one Russian and one American national has been killed. TTP spokesman Eshanullah Ehsan has accredited a newly raised group Janood-e- Hafsa ( Soldiers of Lioness) with these killing which were executed to draw the world attention towards the US drone strikes in general and revenge the killing of TTP amir Wali-ul-Rehman in particular. But the claim defies common logic as only one person (though several reports negate this) was an American. 

The operation was well planned and executed. Dressed in outfits of Gilgit Baltistan scouts, a paramilitary force, the killers tracked the foreign tourists for three days before killing them in cold blood. Then the execcutors esacped without being intercepted. What is of importance here is that the troops of Gilgit Baltistan scouts are mostly of indigenous Balti origin identifiable by their distinct physical feature. The possibility of Pathans of which mostly TTP is made up off masquerading as Gilgit Baltistan Scouts personel  is remote. However ETIM terrorists, an ally of Taliban, can easily move around disguised as Gilgit Baltistan Scouts personals.  The killing of three Chinese nationals is an additional indicator of this possibility.   

The place where the incident took place is located in the Daimer district of Gilgit Baltistan, which is primarily a Sunni dominated district in Shia dominated Gilgit Baltistan. This demographic inversion has been achived slowly and steadily by migration of population from neighbouring Kohistan district of KPK starting from the Zia-ul-Haq era. This has resulted in fundamentalisation of the otherwise peaceful area providing an ideal breeding ground for potential terrorists and sympathisers. Kohistan, itself  a ethnic flashpoint has been notorious for anti Shia violence over the years. It has been a Taliban/  TTP strong hold and no military operation of significance has been carried out here. There is also a possibility of TTP spill over and relocation of TTP/ Taliban camps in this region after the much publicised success of operation Rah- e -Rast of Pakistan Army in neighbouring Malakand division. The remoteness of this region makes it a surveillance blind spot and it is a safe distance away from reach of US drones. The area is also devoid of active deployment of Pakistan Army. 

The timing of the incident also assumes importance as the incident coincided with Pakistan Army's declaration of clearance of Tirah Valley in Khyber region. It may be a signal by TTP to Pakistan Army that the fight is far from over and it retains initiative in this dynamic battlefield. It may also be a measure to surge the sagging morale of TTP cadres taking a beating by Pakistan Army offensive in Khyber- Kurram region.The presence of inimical elements in this strategically sensitive zone will compel Pakistan Army to employ its outstretched resources. This may give TTP the much needed respite in the central FATA region. Moreover, with Nawaz Sharif government desirous of peace, TTP is bound to  make an endeavour to pocket few barging chips.The incident took place in close proximity of the proposed Dimer - Basha Dam. Also, the proposed Karachi- Kasgher rail link crosses the area. With such high economic stakes the control of this area by TTP will yield it considerable politico- economic leverage. 

If unchecked,there is a likelihood of increase in violence levels in Gilgit- Baltistan and Kohistan will have a catastrophic effect on the security dynamics of Gilgit- Baltistan region. It will not only draw Pakistan Army to this region but the Chinese, compelled by their economic interests and security of Chinese nationals located in this region, are also likely to be drawn in. The third regional player India will also have to take preventive measure to thwart the spill over into the Kashmir region. Circumstances, subjected to the followup events of US drawdown from Afghanistan, will force the three nations to conjoin their efforts to check the destructive juggernaut  of terrorism. 

Will is be wise to reach the bridge before one thinks of crossing over?

Hope for Kashmir....

64 years, and a lot has been spoke on Kashmir.It "ownership" has been debated with passionate arguments by the suitors. Each views his right paramount with a parallaxed perception. There is a legal angle and a religious angle and another nationalistic angle,none of which represent the broad spectrum truth. At the end it is geopolitics coated in a sugar candy.

I will not get into a debate that whom does Kashmir belongs to. i have a blunt answer to this question , that we owe it to our future generations. i would like to draw focus on the stark realities which underline the egos.

Pakistan is justified for calculating water scarcity threat if Kashmir is lost. India can not jeopardize its existence by letting Pakistan established land bridge with China. Torn between the geopolitical sparring of the step brothers, Kashmir demand of self determination assumes weight. What emerges pronounced by this debate is underlying Trust Deficit.

Time has come for Kashmir to take a new turn.  To prepare the ground of reconciliation of long lost brothers. Kashmir is the common heritage of South Asian landmass. It is the fountainhead of our culture and existence.I am a firm believer that it is Kashmir that will lead the path of Indo- Pak rapprochement. 

It has to began with an act of faith.A common water sharing mechanism in which Indian Investment, Pakistani Support and Kashmiri potential is harnessed into a success story. Pakistan gets water, India gets water and Kashmir gets revenue.This will naturally result in dissolution of the LoC ( line of Conflict). A joint Disaster Management and Environment Preservation Authority could also be formulate.

Once the ice has been broken next natural step will be reintegration of Integrated Kashmir Assembly, with representation from Gilgit Baltistan, Laddakh,Kashmir and Jammu. Initially this could be over and above the existing system ,and could look after neutral subjects such as culture, education and Medical system.The scope of this assembly can be enlarged later.

This in place will serve as strong foundation for the growth of integrated South Asia. 

The end state is an integrated South Asia, with common defense and economy.

i am a belver it will happen before 2047. Keep your fingers crossed. 

a leap of faith.....

two incidents which happened this week, if taken in right perspective, have the potential to alter the course of history. Firstly it was the vote for the Asia-Pacific non permanent seat in Un Security council , where India voted for Pakistan. The second was the safe return of an Indian Army helicopter which strayed into Gilgit- Baltistan.

The UN vote is hardly talked about in the Indian media. Whereas the novice Indian media has made an all effort to malign Pakistani intent in the helicopter episode. Whatever the argument they may put in , the bottom line is that it was a goodwill gesture, that should not go in vain.

The government of India should reciprocate by immediate release of Dr Khalil Chisty who is undergoing life imprisonment in Ajmer central jail. The time has come to take each opportunity into a positive stride.

The issue of Indian Locomotives for providing traction to ailing Pakistan Railways should gain momentum. Few locomotives should be offered to Pakistan on Gratis basis, without any preconditions. As a complementary act of faith Pakistan should grant permission to move Indian Cargo by Rail to Quetta/Peshawar for further shipment to Afghanistan. this arrangement will surely generate some much required revenue for Pakistan Railways.

The issue of Granting Most Favored Nation status to India by Pakistan should meet a logical conclusion now. If the intent is right the friction is not so much that it can not be overcome. All it needs is a push in the right direction.

It may be far fetched , but a Gentlemen's Commitment by India to the Pakistan, that India will not exploit the precarious defense balance of Pakistan by launching a surprise attack, will take the issue miles ahead. With the eastern border secure Pakistan can focus on west to reign the AQ- TTP onslaught. But then Pakistan have to insure by concrete action that events like 26/11 are not repeated. the closure of the terrorist camps is a natural expectation.

But then,some day one has to take a leap of faith.....

OPERATION GERONIMO : SOME UNANSWERED QUESTIONS

It has not been long since OBL died., but his ghost has returned to haunt the slippery alleys of Islamabad. The surgical strike by DEVGRU team has left many questions unanswered , for which answers will never be found. Then there are certain ones, which do not require a degree in rocket science to find an answer.

The RAID was conducted by inserting the DEVGRU team vectored on " modified Black Hawk helicopters, and two Chinooks as backups." The DEVGRU SEALs operated in two teams of 12 each. According to The New York Times, a total of "79 commandos and a were involved in the raid." "The helicopters were supported by multiple other aircraft, including fixed-wing fighter jets and drones." ( Quotes from Wikipedia).

These teams launched from Jalalabad, Afghanistan, and crossed a distance of 160 miles undetected, to reach Kakul. The operation lasted for 40 min, for which duration the choppers were hovering. Pakistan claims that its air defence RADARS were jammed during this period.

Now the following questions arise :-

1. The distance between Jalalabad and Kakul is roughly 144 nautical miles as the crow flies. Taking in account of the circuitous route ad nap of earth flying it is safe to assume a distance of 160 nautical miles. The max speed of Black Hawk is 150 nm per hour. Taking 80% of this speed it will roughly take 80-90 min one way. Add 40 min of hovering the time works out to 200 min ( 3 Hours, 20 Min). The endurance of a Black Hawk is 2 hours 30 mins. Without refuelling the operation was impossible. Although the helicopter is capable of air to air refuelling, but it is an extremely difficult operation at night. And Air to Air refuelling can not happen at nap of earth. You have to rise to a respectable altitude to be able to be picked up by a RADAR. Considering the helicopter was stealth but a re-fueler aircraft is unlikely to be.
So where was the air crafts refuelled? Land or Air this can not happen without Pakistanis Air Defence taking a notice of it.

2. Pakistanis claim that their RADARS were jammed.Even if you are jammed you know that the spectrum has been jammed and something is going wrong. What steps did Pakistan took to identify the threat.

3. 2 Black Hawks , 2 Chinook and 2 Re fullers. Re fullers can not fly Nap of Earth. There was multi layer escort cover. It is unlikely that Pakistanis did not pick up this move.

4. The story of helicopter crashing does not sounds credible. There was much more to it.

5. Residents of the area said, "We saw four helicopters at around 2 am. We were told to switch off lights of our homes and stay inside." Local residents in the vicinity of the compound reported that telephone and electrical service in the area went out around the time the raid began and was restored immediately after the Americans departed the area. Can this happen without Pakistani support.Well probability is less though technologically US seems capable to do so.

6. According to ABC News, Pakistani fighter jets were scrambled in an attempt to locate and identify what turned out to be the U.S. helicopters used in the raid.^[65] Pakistan's foreign secretary Salman Bashir confirmed that Pakistani military had scrambled F 16as they became aware of the attack but that they reached the compound after American helicopters had left. For a country living under phobia of Pro Active Operations by their assumed prime adversary India, this sounds loosely fictitious.

One could do nothing elses but agree with CIA Director Leon E. Panetta when he said " Either Pakistanis were involved or they were incapable." Now,it is for Pakistan to choose.