The Election Equation

It's a wrong notion that elections in India are won on policies and performance. The out come of the electoral jugglery is directly proportional to grass root penetration of the party caders and the neusence value they yield. The cajoling, threatening, coercion coefficient of these caders directly influences the outcome.

These caders run parallel economy and system which fuels the party growth and police is used as a tool to execute control over these.

The result of recently held state elections bear a testimony to this fact. All sitting governments have been voted back. Primary because of this control. Take Assam for instance, areas under control of Bahruddin Azkmal were won by INC candidates. These are the areas where he executes the grass root control.

The imaginary victory of BJP in bengal was a tall order. I am sure even BJP HQ was aware of this. They have made a dent in the TMC bastion and from this secure position they will eat into TMC cader base,an. essential to make gains in 24 and topple TMC in 26. The violence you see has been pogromed to nip the BJP in the bud so fear prevents migration of the cader.

The same trend will be visible in all state elections and even 24 elections.

The CORONA Corrigendum

The Second Wave of COVID 19 has exposed the ugly face of Indian Statecraft. It has not only highlighted the malice in the administrative system but exposed the insensitive face of Indian Electoral Politics.

Undoubtedly, there is a larger conspiracy to destabilize the Modi Goverment. The   "Administrative Fog" created by the Modi Goverment is aiding them in their effort.  The absence of the political structure from accountability matrix is breeding resentment in the mind of people which is being explored by deft propaganda by fifth columnists.

To say India has failed in this war against COVID is far from the truth. India has by far done much better than Global Standards but unfortunately no one is counting the lives saved.As of now only the dead matter and the system is creating those corpses which count. 

It does not really matters now, who is responsible but the PM is accountable. His quotory is somehow advising him to shrug the accountability. And in this voids the sorts of Kejriwal are playing their in amicable game. 

The Nation needs to know the bitter truth. If these figures continue the country will be facing upto 5 lakh deaths, may be more. This being know the nation needs to be mobilised, all resources, all efforts to prevent these. This means declaring a state of National Emergency and suspending civil rights. This will have repucussion. The propaganda machine will declare Modi a dictator, draw a parallel with Indira and mobilize protests. This is perhaps Modi has been advised against. Hanging in the horns of delimma the nation is paralyzed. 

Last year's experience show that how irresponsible and divergent can states be. From not cooperating to engineering exoduses they tried everything to destabilize the center. And  when the nation was at a lock down we scored 5 lakh plus cases. 

The picture is stark. India is descending into chaos. The international players with China in lead are plotting a colour revolution kind of uprising. And the paralysed goverment is waiting for that to happen.

PM Modi should realize by now, if there will be No India what would he rule. He should step ahead and take control, even at cost of being labelled a dictator and lead the battle upfront. If it costs him next elections, so be it.  The world needs to know , so do the people of India that Delhi is not dead. The political hyenas should realize that no matter how much they howl, the jungle will be ruled by the lion and not them.

Neo Non Alignment... The IOR Neutrality Block

India provides the same strategic dividend to "free world" in this neo not so cold war which Pakistan provided in the cold war. 

Other than the Geographic continuity and being a strategic competition to China, India also provides the largest market outside China both for Chinses as well as US products. It also provides the service backbone to the US IT industry.

India in Chinese camp is a nightmare US can not afford. It means not only removing the Malaca Vulnerability but adding an ally who can ensure integrity of Chinese intrest in IOR freeing Chinese resources to counter US in Pacific. This is the reason perhaps why China is trying so hard to effect a regime change in India through electoral disruption. 

India firmly in US camp is a scenario China would like to avoid at all cost. It divides not only it's attention and resources but closes a potential market for perpatutiy. 

Both extream conditions make India vulnerable to direct action by either of the global players drawing it further into a strategic trap.

India needs to negate threat by reinvoking non alignment and creating a neutral pole. This should be equally accessible to US and China within limits of co operation and sovergnity. It could perhaps be the bridge between the US and PRC.

It begins with cooperation with China sans resolution of boundry dispute ( a precondition) and thereafter assurance of neutrality. The end of conflict with Pakistan is also a by product of the same. CPEC becomes CIPEC with portion of belt and road becoming an equatiy participation between India and China. 

The IT sector should remain independent of Chinese direct influence and continue to support the US. Indian manufacturing sector should also develop to suit global intrest rather than any pivot powers. 

India should secure IOR as a exclusive zone as net security provider with equal rights of safe passage for Pivot Powers. It should develop Exclusive Strategic Zones (Like EEZ) on Djibouti modle to provide OTR to Extra regional forces and thus execute logistic control.   It should enhance it's LRMP capability and execute control over both Suez, Babar Mandal, Malaca ,Sunda by means of investment and assymetric capacity. At the same time it should display tranparent neutrality for the same. 

It should develop this on Switzerland concept as a neutral no agression zone where no agressive design of any pivot power will be acceptable. In event of hostality between then India should be in a position to keep the SLOC open neutral to all.

This will surely fulfill the aspiration of Indian State, not as a pivot power but a leverage power, which is key to the global balance of power and influence. It creates a viable opposition to the Sino US conflict and creates a geopolitical alternative for the world order who does not want to get into this zero sum game.